Still on Iran and the War that may Never Happen



No wise leader would willingly lead his nation into war, no matter how equipped you may be. War is only an option when there is no other option.

Trump understands the huge Hola war will dig in America's pockets and life. Especially, when you are fighting with a nation that has no regard for conventional strategies and rules of engagement at war.

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No matter how tough the Iranian government may want to sound, Soleimani's death has shaken them more than they will ever be ready to agree. While America can boast of some stupendous goodwill even among Iran's closest neighbors, Iran cannot. Iran is that divisive nation among Islamic nations. Their Shiite inclination is against the Sufi Islamism of majority of the Muslim world and their expansionist agenda across the Middle East discomforts their neighbors. It may therefore be that these neighboring nations may see America's attack on Iran as a relief and a breath of freedom for them.

Trump understands what is at stake, and this is why he is not immediately ready to order the bombs to start going off. Russia is watching keenly and would lend their support to anything that will weaken America's powers in the world.

President Trump's declaration that Iran has never won a war, and never lost a negotiation has far deeper meanings than some people may grasp. This implies that Trump understands that Iran uses blackmail as a weapon to get what it wants from the US and other world powers, and he might be indirectly telling Iran to come out and fight if they think they have the capacity they boast of. Trump is making it clear that America is no longer ready to be held to ransom through unending negotiations and concessions all in a bid to denuclearize Iran, which has failed to happen.

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Trump cancelled a deal his predecessor entered into with Iran and dared them to do their worst. He imposed crippling sanctions against Iran as a direct challenge for them to do that which they have continued to threaten of, over the years. They could only carry out some weakly attacks through Hezbollah and other militia groups.

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I think, beyond Trump's conciliatory tone, he might be more keen in dragging Iran into the battlefield than he is ready to admit. He knows the losses and discomfort, but his advisers might have convinced him that dragging Iran out to come and fight may actually be the best way to get them to stop threatening world peace.

Now, what is Nigeria's interest in this whole thing? If there is a group of Nigerians that are most disappointed by this development it is El-Zakzaky's Islamic Movement of Nigeria and all Shiite Muslims in Nigeria. The average Sufi Muslim feels nothing about this, and if they must, it is some joy. And, Nigeria is going to make a lot of money if this degenerates to a full scale war. Who knows, oil may hit above 100 Dollars again and our Excess Crude Account will swell again.

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Iran may out of shame or pride try some attacks on some low-level US interests. The fact is that they can never get even with the US on this. To get even with US, they need to kill the CIA director, Haspel, the National Security Adviser, O'Brien, and maybe, Mike Pence, the Vice-president. Obviously, these people are out of reach. In what is clearly an evidence of US overwhelming superiority over Iran, the most Rouhani and Khomeini can do is to set some US embassies ablaze or kidnap some US citizens.

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