PDP will likely win the Edo election come 2020 in spite of some members decamping to factions in APC. That fact is not in doubt. Now, APC with its factions within factions are embroiled in an unending war. Instead of finding some common grounds, the war seems to be escalating the more, especially with the introduction of POI who has sandwiched himself within the war as to profit from it. Wars are to be profited from however.
If the war continue without painstaking resolutions to resolve the issues, the Edo APC will see nothing less than Rivers and Zanfara States, where PDP won easily because APC conducted illegal primaries when the courts asked them not to do so.
First, which of these Edo APC factions will be recognized by INEC to deal with in terms of primaries? Both have chairmen and executives. If by the time the primaries come up next year, the issue has not been resolved in the law court as to whether Anselm or Imuse is the authentic chairman, whatever either of them do might go to waste.
Secondly, whichever of the two sides win, assuming the other factions are irrelevant, the side that lost might not wish to collapse its structure to help the other. We saw it happened in 2016. When Chief Edebiri lost in the primaries under PDP, he worked for APC as his sign of protest. In short, if OSM looses, assuming, Obaseki will deploy everything within his arsenal to work for PDP rather than come to a truce with EPM. And if EPM looses, we all know Oshiomole, he would rather the state goes to PDP than his recalcitrant godson.
So PDP will profit immensely from this war in APC. I have told some of these decampees; you are running from a house that has small small fixable leaking roof to a house that the occupants have decided to burn to ashes.
By Elempe Dele